2021 Mid-Year Export Review

Hong Kong’s exports showed a sharp rebound of 30.8% year‑on‑year in the first four months of 2021, along with strong growth of 10% in global trade during 1Q21. This was largely on account of subsiding pandemic restrictions and increasingly aggressive monetary and fiscal stimuli in many of the major economies. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global economic growth is projected to be 6% this year and 4.4% in 2022, while the World Trade Organization (WTO) is forecasting 8% growth in world trade volume in 2021.

Given the threat of the new coronavirus variants and the shortage of vaccines in less‑developed economies, however, any global economic recovery is likely to be highly uneven, with the situation also being exacerbated by tense China‑US relations and other geopolitical uncertainties. With a reading of 48.7 points, the latest HKTDC Export Index has, however, indicated that exporter sentiment has continued to improve across major sectors and markets, with the figure well up on the record low of 16 points in 1Q20. As a consequence, in view of the improving sentiment and strong export performance, HKTDC Research has revised its 2021 export growth forecast to 15% from 5%, albeit from a relatively low comparison base.